Stalin’s delimitation meet must discuss selective use of Article 82, rights of smaller states

For the past two years, the issue of delimitation, which will affect the extent of the representation of states in Parliament, has been an elephant in the room and both the BJP and the combined opposition parties skirted the issue because of political implications. The opposition parties and the five southern states also smartly chose not to voice their concern because they wanted the BJP to make the first move, especially with the indefinite postponement of the 2021 Census.

Stalin addresses elephant in the room

Stalin, however, shrewdly raked up the issue in the last week of February and spoke directly to the media after a cabinet meeting. While warning people that a “major battle” loomed ahead for Tamil Nadu, he also dubbed the delimitation exercise as “a sword hanging over the head of South India.”

Also read: Delimitation: DMK MPs to raise issue in Parliament, seek other parties' support

Presciently, with the eye on consolidating the sub-national Tamil sentiment behind the DMK, Stalin intertwined this complicated issue with a more sensitive and easily comprehensive issue of the third language to be taught in schools under the New Education Policy (NEP).

At the press conference, he also categorically stated that the state was ready for another “language war”, even as he announced his decision to convene an all-party meeting in the first week of March. Stalin’s move has to be seen in the backdrop of the next Assembly elections in the state, due in April-May 2026.

Centre’s defence

But before the all-party meeting was held, Union Home Minister Amit Shah jumped into the ring and during a visit to Tamil Nadu promised that the five southern states would not lose a single parliamentary seat on account of delimitation. “I want to reassure the public of South India that Modiji has kept your interest in mind to make sure that not even one seat is reduced pro rata," he said.

The issue of impending delimitation is extremely complex. There is also grave anxiety among people that representation of the southern states would decline proportionally with the next delimitation, frozen effectively for more than half a century.

As a result, Shah’s statement was interpreted by people as imprecise and aimed at reducing political representation of southern states.

Also read: Delimitation row: Stalin seeks states' unity, writes to CMs to join JAC

Opposition rallies behind Stalin

As Stalin’s word of caution increased apprehensions among people, it put opposition parties in a dilemma: Staying away from the all-party meeting would cast them as backers of the BJP’s ‘sinister’ idea and attending the meeting and endorsing Stalin’s proposal would give it strength.

Eventually, the state’s opposition parties decided to swim along and await their turn at improving their position.

Over the past several years, people in the majority of states were anxious over the paradoxical fate that would befall them for having taken the country’s population policy seriously and reduced the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below national average, leading to considerable decline in the community’s numbers.

Punished for controlling population?

For instance, post-delimitation, when the number of Lok Sabha members would remain the same at 543, the number of MPs from Tamil Nadu would decline from 39 to 31, while that in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana would jointly fall from 42 to 34. Karnataka’s representation in Lok Sabha would get reduced to 26 from 28 while Kerala’s seats would fall from 20 to 12.

However, in contrast, Uttar Pradesh’s share would rise from 80 to 91, Bihar’s from 40 to 50, while the people of Rajasthan would elect 31 Lok Sabha members from the earlier 25 and Madhya Pradesh would send 33 MPs to Lok Sabha, a rise from the current 29. The rise and fall would be more dramatic if the total Lok Sabha seats were increased to 848 by a Delimitation Commission.

Also read: Language row: BJP starts counter-campaign in Tamil Nadu

Quite clearly, this would be travesty for being committed to controlling population merely because of the constitutional provision, Article 82 to be precise, was based on the principle of ‘one person, one vote, one value’, meaning that MPs across states would be elected by (almost) the same number of voters. Delimitations, as mandated, were conducted after every decadal census and continued through the 1960s till 1973, when they were last fixed at 543 Lok Sabha members.

South not the sole affected party

Political parties agreed to continue with this strength of Lok Sabha in 2002 and in 2008, the boundaries of some constituencies were re-jigged and altered but the numbers remained the same in the states.

The fear of a dramatic fall in numbers of elected representatives have caused apprehension, mainly among the people of aforementioned states, although the Lok Sabha members’ strength would also decline for West Bengal, Odisha, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

In the proposed March 22 meeting of the JAC convened by Stalin, the BJP-led government of Odisha is likely to stay away, like it did on March 5 from the all-party meeting held in Chennai.

However, states attending the upcoming meeting should not look at merely deferring delimitation based on the Census, or continue with the freeze on Lok Sabha strength for another period, work for which has not yet begun, although it should be underway from 2021.

Also read: Has Vijay grasped delimitation’s impact? TVK stand does not suggest so

Hegemony of dominant

Instead, the states that are likely to join the meet, should take into account, the growing support in Indian polity for the perverse principle of ‘hegemony of the dominant or the majority’.

In the decades since the mid-1980s, a particular community backed by its numbers, and primarily riding on the popularity of the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation, has been demanding greater rights and privileges over minority communities.

This demand has found greater support from the people as is evident from the rising support of the Hindutva brigade’s temple-mosque narrative as well as for the principle of ‘Hindi supremacy’ in northern states.

In fact, in the areas where the BJP is politically dominant at present, the demand for supremacist position for Hindus and Hindi-speakers is at its most vocal in recent years.

Smaller states at a disadvantage

Article 82 may state that “upon completion of each census, the allocation of seats in the House of the People to the States and the divisions of each State into territorial constituencies shall be readjusted…” But it is time to recognise that the principle of ‘one person, one vote, one value’ is being selectively aggregated to construct numerical majorities as a result of which the minorities are being increasingly marginalised and rendered electorally irrelevant.

Watch: Will South lose political power with delimitation?

Smaller states, like Goa and Arunanchal Pradesh, for instance, were at one time provided greater representation in the Lok Sabha, than their share in the country’s population. It is now time to widen the base of the smaller states and agree that in these states fewer people will have one elected representative, compared to larger and more populous states.

Political parties may certainly examine increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats although the proportion should remain frozen at the present mark: For instance, if the seats of Lok Sabha are enhanced to about 850, seats allocated to Uttar Pradesh would increase to 125. Likewise, Kerala’s 20 seats should also increase to 31-32.

Centre must preserve proportions

India will stop being a federal nation and a functional democracy if the smaller states have fewer representatives and bigger and more populous states have more and more members of Lok Sabha.

We are already witness to the Waqf Bill where the BJP, driven by majoritarian intent will get the legislation enacted, probably in the Budget Session, with complete opposition from the community whose lives and endowments would be regulated by the law.

Also read: Delimitation: Will Stalin's all-party meet spur northern states to join fight?

The only way the BJP can get out of this bind, would be if it takes the lead and initiates a parallel process for delimitation that will truly aim to preserve the current proportions between states in the Lok Sabha.

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)