Colorado State University and their lead hurricane expert, Dr. Phil Klotsbach, released their first look at the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast Thursday morning.
The team notes that overall, they are expecting an above average season, depicted in the graphic above. If it verifies, it may look very similar to last year when we saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, including Hurricane Beryl which wrecked a large chunk of greater Houston, and 5 major hurricanes, which is a Cat. 3 or higher.
One reason for CSU's active Atlantic #hurricane season forecast is the unlikelihood of #ElNino. El Nino typically decreases Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in Caribbean/tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Lack of El Nino typically results in busier Atlantic seasons. pic.twitter.com/Ile5aixn7T
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 3, 2025
Some of the factors in their analysis (as you can see above from Dr. Klotsbach) include:
- A non-El Nino weather pattern (which usually decreases tropical activity)
- Caribbean and tropical eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures that are warmer than normal
The Caribbean and subtropical eastern Atlantic are warmer than normal, while eastern tropical Atlantic is near average. The current spatial pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperatures is similar to what we typically observe with active Atlantic #hurricane seasons. pic.twitter.com/XjR23lqY1N
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 3, 2025
- Analog years that showed similar conditions to what we’re seeing this spring include some very active hurricane seasons, with one particular standout of 2017 ... (who can forget that hurricane summer!)
CSU's six analogs for the 2025 Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast are: 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017. Analogs are selected based on 2nd hurricane season following #ElNino and somewhat above-normal sea surface temperatures in tropical Atlantic for August-October. pic.twitter.com/nRPQUNOIHM
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 3, 2025
We will get additional forecasts coming up in the next few weeks of April and May from other tropical researchers, including the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
Make sure to check back with the KPRC2 Weather Team for new updates and analysis as we get closer to the start of hurricane season. You can read the full report from CSU here:
Make sure to have those hurricane kits ready!
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