On March 28, Myanmar was struck by the most devastating earthquake in its history. The disaster reduced much of Mandalay, the country's second-largest city, to rubble. Nay Pyi Taw, the administrative capital, and several towns across central Myanmar also suffered massive destruction.
The earthquake has also amplified Myanmar's already precarious situation. Even before the disaster, it was home to one of the world's deadliest conflicts. Over 200 non-state armed groups are engaged in territorial battles, funding their operations through illicit trade, black markets, and cyber scams. The country is now the world's largest producer of heroin and the primary supplier of synthetic drugs. The ongoing conflict has destabilised the region, prompting neighbouring countries to push for containment strategies. Now, with this earthquake, Myanmar is at risk of losing what little control it had left over these non-traditional security threats.
As one of the 10 most disaster-prone countries in the world, Myanmar has long been vulnerable to natural calamities. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami took 61 lives in the country, and the 2015 floods wiped out 3.7% of the country's GDP in that year. In between the two, Cyclone Nargis devastated the Ayeyarwady Delta in 2008, killing nearly 200,000 people and inflicting $4 billion in damages. Asean facilitated the establishment of the Tripartite Core Group (TCG), bringing Myanmar, Asean, and the UN together for a coordinated humanitarian response. This initiative helped Myanmar recover and set the stage for its reintegration into the international community. By 2010, Myanmar's political and economic isolation period was beginning to thaw, leading to rapid economic growth and reform efforts in the following decade. The Nargis response serves as a reminder that effective disaster management is not just about aid -- it is about dialogue, change and transformation.
In the wake of the earthquake, Myanmar's neighbours have stepped up. President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India personally reached out to Sen Gen Min Aung Hlaing, pledging assistance. Teams from China, India, Singapore, Thailand, and other nations have arrived and rescued dozens of survivors trapped beneath collapsed buildings. Their contributions are vital, as Myanmar lacks the expertise and equipment to execute effective search-and-rescue operations.
Myanmar will enter even more difficult relief and recovery operations phases in the coming weeks.
First, conditionality on humanitarian aid delivery poses a significant challenge for the international community as it navigates the complex political landscape in Myanmar. However, this is not the time to politicise humanitarian relief nor set conditions on delivery. The priority must be the victims and their families, with aid delivered based on humanitarian principles, not political agendas. The swift response from both near and far has been reassuring, but it must be sustained through the critical phases of relief and recovery.
Second, while the outpouring of rescue and medical assistance has been heartening, Myanmar must prepare for the difficult transition from emergency response to long-term reconstruction. Unlike cyclones and floods, which predominantly impact rural areas, earthquakes devastate densely populated urban centers, making recovery more complex, traumatic, and expensive. Reconstructing cities and towns will be time-consuming and frustrating, potentially exacerbating existing political and social tensions.
Myanmar also needs an effective, centralised reconstruction authority to prevent duplication and waste and avoid an economic crisis due to overlapping donor responses. This is the third, but most important, challenge. While Myanmar has a natural disaster management law and an inter-ministerial committee, these mechanisms are insufficient for handling a catastrophe of this scale. Nepal's response to its 2015 earthquake provides a helpful model -- its National Reconstruction Authority functioned as a one-stop service for coordinating international aid, managing logistics, and overseeing reconstruction efforts. Myanmar has the capacity and experience to establish a similar body, but this requires political will from all parties.
Finally, trust between the state and society remains a major obstacle. Years of armed conflict and militarisation have sidelined civil society's role, and local NGOs are now viewed through a political lens. Buddhist monks, whose schools and monasteries are heavily concentrated in Mandalay and Sagaing, could be pivotal in rebuilding trust and organising inclusive reconstruction efforts. International faith-based organizations can build bridges for interfaith corridors of assistance. The private sector must also manage economic recovery, as most property losses are private assets. The Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry can proactively shape reconstruction strategies, bridge the gap between civil society and the government, and provide international recovery support.
The world must not fail Myanmar as Syria was left to fall after its devastating earthquake two years ago. This is a defining moment. Myanmar is in the ICU. Our neighbours and the international community must provide the life support to ensure its survival and renewal.
Zaw Oo was a humanitarian worker during the Indian Ocean Tsunami and Cyclone Nargis disasters, and became the Special Coordinator for Recovery Planning in 2015 for post-floods and landslides need assessments. He presently lives in Myanmar and heads the Center for Economic and Social Development, an independent think-tank.
